Across 72 Bundesliga matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite won 52.8% of its games. On average, the market gave it 54.9%.
Bundesliga at a glance
The Bundesliga has 18 clubs over 34 matchdays, so 306 matches between August and May. With a shorter schedule than the 20-club leagues, the figures on this page build up a little more slowly.
Upcoming matches
The fixtures, without odds. The analysis for each match is in the app.
- Hamburger SV - Borussia Monchengladbach
- FSV Mainz 05 - Bayern Munich
- RB Leipzig - Augsburg
- Borussia Dortmund - Elversberg
- SC Paderborn - Eintracht Frankfurt
- VfB Stuttgart - Werder Bremen
- 1. FC Köln - Bayer Leverkusen
- SC Freiburg - Union Berlin
The market on Bundesliga
The market's favourites
Across 72 Bundesliga matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite (the lowest average odds) won 52.8% of its games. On average, the market gave it 54.9%.
Is the market well calibrated?
Each row compares the closing implied probability without margin, grouped in bands of 10 points, with the actual frequency seen in the same band. Sample: 216 1X2 outcomes across 72 matches.
| Implied probability | Outcomes | Average probability | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 to 20% | 36 | 15.8% | 19.4% |
| 20 to 30% | 78 | 24.2% | 26.9% |
| 30 to 40% | 32 | 35.0% | 31.3% |
Draws
The draw came in 22.2% of the 72 Bundesliga matches analysed. Its implied probability without margin averaged 21.9%.
Home advantage
Home teams won 48.6% of the 72 matches analysed. Their implied probability without margin averaged 45.5%.
goals: over 2.5
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 69.4% of the 72 matches analysed. The implied probability without margin of that outcome averaged 66.4%.
Odds movements
Between the opening and the close, the implied probability of an outcome moves by 2.3 percentage points on average. The favourite changes in 6.9% of the 72 matches analysed.
When the market moves
59% of the odds movement happens in the last 24 hours before kick-off, and 22% in the last 2 hours. Sample: 72 matches.
Movement is the sum of the changes in implied probability between the opening, 24 hours before, 2 hours before and the close.
Market statistics for all of football
Frequently asked questions
How many matches are in a Bundesliga season?
There are 18 clubs and 34 matchdays, so 306 matches. Each club plays the other 17 twice.
When is the Bundesliga played?
From August to May. The upcoming matches are listed higher up on this page.
Where do the figures on Bundesliga come from?
The average odds from every bookmaker we track, with their margin removed, for each finished match in the competition. The Method section gives the sample thresholds.
Does OddScore tell you which team to back in Bundesliga?
No. OddScore gives no stake advice. The AI reading sums up what the market says about a match. It is not a bet to follow.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every bookmaker we track, with one price per bookmaker.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kick-off.
- Implied probability is calculated without the bookmakers' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (18+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Gambling Helpline is on 0808 8020 133 across Great Britain, 24 hours a day. More help at BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org).
Responsible gambling: figures on past matches say nothing about the next one. Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. Set yourself a budget, don't chase your losses, and use the deposit limits and self-exclusion tools available. Learn more about responsible gambling
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
The market in numbers
Season-long statistics across all competitions.
Read the guideImplied probability: how to read odds
How to turn odds into a probability, margin included.
Read the guideClosing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideSources
The figures come from our own odds records. Here are the official references on gambling and, where one exists, the competition's page.