Across 1169 football matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite won 56.4% of its games. On average, the market gave it 53.7%.
The market's favourites
Across 1169 football matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite (the lowest average odds) won 56.4% of its games. On average, the market gave it 53.7%.
| Favourite's odds | Matches | Wins | Actual rate | What the market said |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 | 287 | 224 | 78.0% | 73.4% |
| From 1.50 to 2.00 | 431 | 236 | 54.8% | 53.9% |
| Over 2.00 | 451 | 199 | 44.1% | 41.0% |
Is the market well calibrated?
Each row compares the closing implied probability without margin, grouped in bands of 10 points, with the actual frequency seen in the same band. Sample: 3507 1X2 outcomes across 1169 matches.
| Implied probability | Outcomes | Average probability | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10% | 155 | 6.6% | 2.6% |
| 10 to 20% | 510 | 15.8% | 14.1% |
| 20 to 30% | 1305 | 25.2% | 24.6% |
| 30 to 40% | 552 | 34.6% | 33.2% |
| 40 to 50% | 370 | 44.6% | 47.3% |
| 50 to 60% | 278 | 54.6% | 55.4% |
| 60 to 70% | 177 | 64.7% | 70.6% |
| 70 to 80% | 96 | 75.0% | 80.2% |
| 80 to 90% | 53 | 84.1% | 88.7% |
Draws
The draw came in 23.6% of the 1169 football matches analysed. Its implied probability without margin averaged 23.6%.
| Competition | Matches | Actual draws | What the market said |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 269 | 29.7% | 23.5% |
| UEFA Nations League | 88 | 29.5% | 23.9% |
| Conference League | 35 | 28.6% | 21.4% |
| Premier League | 89 | 28.1% | 24.8% |
| La Liga | 108 | 25.0% | 24.4% |
| Ligue 1 | 80 | 23.8% | 24.6% |
| UCL Qualification | 87 | 23.0% | 23.6% |
| Bundesliga | 72 | 22.2% | 21.9% |
| Primeira Liga | 88 | 20.5% | 24.1% |
| Europa League | 54 | 16.7% | 22.0% |
| Serie A | 98 | 16.3% | 25.5% |
| Champions League | 54 | 11.1% | 20.1% |
Home advantage
Home teams won 44.9% of the 1169 matches analysed. Their implied probability without margin averaged 44.7%.
goals: over 2.5
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 60.4% of the 1166 matches analysed. The implied probability without margin of that outcome averaged 57.6%.
Odds movements
Between the opening and the close, the implied probability of an outcome moves by 2.7 percentage points on average. The favourite changes in 6.4% of the 1169 matches analysed.
Conference League is the competition where odds move the most (3.8 percentage points, 35 matches).
Premier League is where they move the least (2.0 percentage points, 89 matches).
When the market moves
59% of the odds movement happens in the last 24 hours before kick-off, and 26% in the last 2 hours. Sample: 1169 matches.
Movement is the sum of the changes in implied probability between the opening, 24 hours before, 2 hours before and the close.
This week's chronicles
One chronicle a week, with the figures frozen at publication. Newest first.
Football, week 44: Espanyol beat Villarreal
77 of 111 closing favourites won between 26 October and 1 November 2026.
Read the chronicleFootball, week 43: Sporting Lisbon fall twice
68 of 128 closing favourites won, or 53.1%.
Read the chronicleFootball, week 42: Club Brugge beat Inter Milan
79 of 128 closing favourites won, or 61.7%.
Read the chronicleFootball, week 41: 52 of 84 favourites came through
52 of 84 closing favourites won, or 61.9%.
Read the chronicleMethod
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every bookmaker we track, with one price per bookmaker.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kick-off.
- Implied probability is calculated without the bookmakers' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (18+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Gambling Helpline is on 0808 8020 133 across Great Britain, 24 hours a day. More help at BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org).
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Closing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideImplied probability: how to read odds
How to turn odds into a probability, margin included.
Read the guideOdds movements: understanding the market
What happens between the first price and the last.
Read the guide