Across 54 Champions League matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite won 66.7% of its games. On average, the market gave it 60.3%.
Champions League at a glance
Since the 2024-2025 season, the Champions League has no group stage. 36 clubs play a single league phase, with 8 matches each, then play-off rounds and knockout matches up to the final.
Upcoming matches
The fixtures, without odds. The analysis for each match is in the app.
- AEK Athens - Real Madrid
- Fenerbahce - Liverpool
- Porto - Napoli
- RC Lens - Como
- Slavia Praha - Arsenal
- PSV Eindhoven - Club Brugge
- RB Leipzig - Manchester City
- Borussia Dortmund - Real Betis
The market on Champions League
The market's favourites
Across 54 Champions League matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite (the lowest average odds) won 66.7% of its games. On average, the market gave it 60.3%.
Is the market well calibrated?
Each row compares the closing implied probability without margin, grouped in bands of 10 points, with the actual frequency seen in the same band. Sample: 162 1X2 outcomes across 54 matches.
| Implied probability | Outcomes | Average probability | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 to 30% | 48 | 24.4% | 12.5% |
Draws
The draw came in 11.1% of the 54 Champions League matches analysed. Its implied probability without margin averaged 20.1%.
Home advantage
Home teams won 59.3% of the 54 matches analysed. Their implied probability without margin averaged 51.0%.
goals: over 2.5
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 74.1% of the 54 matches analysed. The implied probability without margin of that outcome averaged 66.0%.
Odds movements
Between the opening and the close, the implied probability of an outcome moves by 3.0 percentage points on average. The favourite changes in 3.7% of the 54 matches analysed.
When the market moves
62% of the odds movement happens in the last 24 hours before kick-off, and 24% in the last 2 hours. Sample: 54 matches.
Movement is the sum of the changes in implied probability between the opening, 24 hours before, 2 hours before and the close.
Market statistics for all of football
Frequently asked questions
How does the Champions League league phase work?
36 clubs are ranked in one table. Each plays 8 matches against 8 different opponents, 4 at home and 4 away.
When is the Champions League played?
The league phase starts in September. The final is played in late May or early June.
Where do the figures on Champions League come from?
The average odds from every bookmaker we track, with their margin removed, for each finished match in the competition. The Method section gives the sample thresholds.
Does OddScore tell you which team to back in Champions League?
No. OddScore gives no stake advice. The AI reading sums up what the market says about a match. It is not a bet to follow.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every bookmaker we track, with one price per bookmaker.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kick-off.
- Implied probability is calculated without the bookmakers' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (18+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Gambling Helpline is on 0808 8020 133 across Great Britain, 24 hours a day. More help at BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org).
Responsible gambling: figures on past matches say nothing about the next one. Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. Set yourself a budget, don't chase your losses, and use the deposit limits and self-exclusion tools available. Learn more about responsible gambling
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
The market in numbers
Season-long statistics across all competitions.
Read the guideImplied probability: how to read odds
How to turn odds into a probability, margin included.
Read the guideClosing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideSources
The figures come from our own odds records. Here are the official references on gambling and, where one exists, the competition's page.