Across 35 Conference League matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite won 62.9% of its games. On average, the market gave it 59.9%.
Conference League at a glance
The Conference League is UEFA's third European club competition. Since the 2024-2025 season, 36 clubs play a single league phase of 6 matches each, then play-off rounds and knockout matches.
Upcoming matches
The fixtures, without odds. The analysis for each match is in the app.
- Mjällby AIF - FK Borac Banja Luka
- KuPS Kuopio - Gent
- Lincoln Red Imps FC - Hajduk Split
- Red Star Belgrade - Inter Club d'Escaldes
- AGF Aarhus - SC Braga
- FC Midtjylland - Ajax
- Trabzonspor - SC Freiburg
- Atalanta BC - FC Kairat
The market on Conference League
The market's favourites
Across 35 Conference League matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite (the lowest average odds) won 62.9% of its games. On average, the market gave it 59.9%.
Is the market well calibrated?
Each row compares the closing implied probability without margin, grouped in bands of 10 points, with the actual frequency seen in the same band. Sample: 105 1X2 outcomes across 35 matches.
| Implied probability | Outcomes | Average probability | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 to 30% | 32 | 24.9% | 31.3% |
Draws
The draw came in 28.6% of the 35 Conference League matches analysed. Its implied probability without margin averaged 21.4%.
Home advantage
Home teams won 45.7% of the 35 matches analysed. Their implied probability without margin averaged 46.4%.
goals: over 2.5
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 51.4% of the 35 matches analysed. The implied probability without margin of that outcome averaged 58.1%.
Odds movements
Between the opening and the close, the implied probability of an outcome moves by 3.8 percentage points on average. The favourite changes in 8.6% of the 35 matches analysed.
When the market moves
61% of the odds movement happens in the last 24 hours before kick-off, and 29% in the last 2 hours. Sample: 35 matches.
Movement is the sum of the changes in implied probability between the opening, 24 hours before, 2 hours before and the close.
Market statistics for all of football
Frequently asked questions
How many matches does each club play in the league phase?
Each club plays 6 matches, against 6 different opponents. That's 2 fewer than in the Champions League and the Europa League.
How is the Conference League different from the Europa League?
The number of clubs in the league phase is the same, 36, but each plays 6 matches instead of 8.
Where do the figures on Conference League come from?
The average odds from every bookmaker we track, with their margin removed, for each finished match in the competition. The Method section gives the sample thresholds.
Does OddScore tell you which team to back in Conference League?
No. OddScore gives no stake advice. The AI reading sums up what the market says about a match. It is not a bet to follow.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every bookmaker we track, with one price per bookmaker.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kick-off.
- Implied probability is calculated without the bookmakers' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (18+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Gambling Helpline is on 0808 8020 133 across Great Britain, 24 hours a day. More help at BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org).
Responsible gambling: figures on past matches say nothing about the next one. Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. Set yourself a budget, don't chase your losses, and use the deposit limits and self-exclusion tools available. Learn more about responsible gambling
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
The market in numbers
Season-long statistics across all competitions.
Read the guideImplied probability: how to read odds
How to turn odds into a probability, margin included.
Read the guideClosing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideSources
The figures come from our own odds records. Here are the official references on gambling and, where one exists, the competition's page.