Across 80 Ligue 1 matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite won 57.5% of its games. On average, the market gave it 51.1%.
Ligue 1 at a glance
Ligue 1 has had 18 clubs since the 2023-2024 season. Each club plays 34 matchdays, 306 matches in total, between August and May. That's fewer than in the Premier League or La Liga, so the sample fills up a little more slowly.
Upcoming matches
The fixtures, without odds. The analysis for each match is in the app.
- Toulouse - Strasbourg
- Auxerre - Paris FC
- Paris Saint Germain - Troyes
- Rennes - Lille
- Le Havre - Lorient
- Brest - Lyon
- Le Mans FC - AS Monaco
- Angers - Nice
The market on Ligue 1
The market's favourites
Across 80 Ligue 1 matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite (the lowest average odds) won 57.5% of its games. On average, the market gave it 51.1%.
| Favourite's odds | Matches | Wins | Actual rate | What the market said |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.00 | 35 | 15 | 42.9% | 41.3% |
Is the market well calibrated?
Each row compares the closing implied probability without margin, grouped in bands of 10 points, with the actual frequency seen in the same band. Sample: 240 1X2 outcomes across 80 matches.
| Implied probability | Outcomes | Average probability | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 to 20% | 34 | 15.9% | 8.8% |
| 20 to 30% | 102 | 25.8% | 24.5% |
| 30 to 40% | 36 | 34.9% | 33.3% |
| 40 to 50% | 30 | 45.1% | 46.7% |
Draws
The draw came in 23.8% of the 80 Ligue 1 matches analysed. Its implied probability without margin averaged 24.6%.
Home advantage
Home teams won 48.8% of the 80 matches analysed. Their implied probability without margin averaged 42.2%.
goals: over 2.5
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 60.0% of the 80 matches analysed. The implied probability without margin of that outcome averaged 57.1%.
Odds movements
Between the opening and the close, the implied probability of an outcome moves by 3.2 percentage points on average. The favourite changes in 8.8% of the 80 matches analysed.
When the market moves
54% of the odds movement happens in the last 24 hours before kick-off, and 21% in the last 2 hours. Sample: 80 matches.
Movement is the sum of the changes in implied probability between the opening, 24 hours before, 2 hours before and the close.
Market statistics for all of football
Frequently asked questions
How many matches does a Ligue 1 season have?
There are 18 clubs and 34 matchdays, so 306 matches. Each club plays the other 17, both at home and away.
When is Ligue 1 played?
The season runs from August to May. The upcoming matches are listed higher up on this page.
Where do the figures on Ligue 1 come from?
The average odds from every bookmaker we track, with their margin removed, for each finished match in the competition. The Method section gives the sample thresholds.
Does OddScore tell you which team to back in Ligue 1?
No. OddScore gives no stake advice. The AI reading sums up what the market says about a match. It is not a bet to follow.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every bookmaker we track, with one price per bookmaker.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kick-off.
- Implied probability is calculated without the bookmakers' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (18+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Gambling Helpline is on 0808 8020 133 across Great Britain, 24 hours a day. More help at BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org).
Responsible gambling: figures on past matches say nothing about the next one. Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. Set yourself a budget, don't chase your losses, and use the deposit limits and self-exclusion tools available. Learn more about responsible gambling
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
The market in numbers
Season-long statistics across all competitions.
Read the guideImplied probability: how to read odds
How to turn odds into a probability, margin included.
Read the guideClosing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideSources
The figures come from our own odds records. Here are the official references on gambling and, where one exists, the competition's page.