Across 88 Primeira Liga matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite won 55.7% of its games. On average, the market gave it 55.9%.
Primeira Liga at a glance
The Portuguese Primeira Liga has 18 clubs and 34 matchdays, so 306 matches between August and May. Odds are tracked the same way as in the other leagues: same method, same sample threshold.
Upcoming matches
The fixtures, without odds. The analysis for each match is in the app.
- Famalicão - Arouca
- Nacional - Académico de Viseu
- Alverca - Casa Pia
- Sporting Lisbon - Moreirense FC
- Santa Clara - Gil Vicente
- Estoril - CS Maritimo
- Vitória SC - FC Porto
- Rio Ave FC - Braga
The market on Primeira Liga
The market's favourites
Across 88 Primeira Liga matches played from 1 July 2026 to 1 November 2026, the closing favourite (the lowest average odds) won 55.7% of its games. On average, the market gave it 55.9%.
| Favourite's odds | Matches | Wins | Actual rate | What the market said |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.00 | 32 | 15 | 46.9% | 40.6% |
Is the market well calibrated?
Each row compares the closing implied probability without margin, grouped in bands of 10 points, with the actual frequency seen in the same band. Sample: 264 1X2 outcomes across 88 matches.
| Implied probability | Outcomes | Average probability | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 to 20% | 45 | 15.1% | 17.8% |
| 20 to 30% | 85 | 26.3% | 25.9% |
| 30 to 40% | 42 | 34.1% | 31.0% |
Draws
The draw came in 20.5% of the 88 Primeira Liga matches analysed. Its implied probability without margin averaged 24.1%.
Home advantage
Home teams won 39.8% of the 88 matches analysed. Their implied probability without margin averaged 42.7%.
goals: over 2.5
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 55.7% of the 88 matches analysed. The implied probability without margin of that outcome averaged 50.4%.
Odds movements
Between the opening and the close, the implied probability of an outcome moves by 2.4 percentage points on average. The favourite changes in 6.8% of the 88 matches analysed.
When the market moves
62% of the odds movement happens in the last 24 hours before kick-off, and 23% in the last 2 hours. Sample: 88 matches.
Movement is the sum of the changes in implied probability between the opening, 24 hours before, 2 hours before and the close.
Market statistics for all of football
Frequently asked questions
How many clubs play in the Primeira Liga?
There are 18. Each club plays 34 matches, against the other 17 at home and away.
When is the Primeira Liga played?
From August to May. The upcoming matches are listed higher up on this page.
Where do the figures on Primeira Liga come from?
The average odds from every bookmaker we track, with their margin removed, for each finished match in the competition. The Method section gives the sample thresholds.
Does OddScore tell you which team to back in Primeira Liga?
No. OddScore gives no stake advice. The AI reading sums up what the market says about a match. It is not a bet to follow.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every bookmaker we track, with one price per bookmaker.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kick-off.
- Implied probability is calculated without the bookmakers' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (18+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Gambling Helpline is on 0808 8020 133 across Great Britain, 24 hours a day. More help at BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org).
Responsible gambling: figures on past matches say nothing about the next one. Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. Set yourself a budget, don't chase your losses, and use the deposit limits and self-exclusion tools available. Learn more about responsible gambling
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
The market in numbers
Season-long statistics across all competitions.
Read the guideImplied probability: how to read odds
How to turn odds into a probability, margin included.
Read the guideClosing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideSources
The figures come from our own odds records. Here are the official references on gambling and, where one exists, the competition's page.