Across 90 NBA matches played from October 1, 2026 to November 1, 2026, the closing favorite won 67.8% of its games. On average, the market gave it 65.1%.
NBA at a glance
This page tracks NBA: the upcoming fixtures, then what the average odds from all bookmakers say about matches already played, once the sample is large enough for the numbers to hold up.
Upcoming fixtures
The schedule, without odds. Each match's analysis is in the app.
- Detroit Pistons - Philadelphia 76ers
- Washington Wizards - Atlanta Hawks
- Brooklyn Nets - Charlotte Hornets
- New York Knicks - Chicago Bulls
- Boston Celtics - Milwaukee Bucks
- Oklahoma City Thunder - Cleveland Cavaliers
- Houston Rockets - Minnesota Timberwolves
- Denver Nuggets - Toronto Raptors
The market for NBA
The market's favorites
Across 90 NBA matches played from October 1, 2026 to November 1, 2026, the closing favorite (the lowest average odds) won 67.8% of its games. On average, the market gave it 65.1%.
| Favorite's odds | Matches | Wins | Actual rate | What the market said |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 | 44 | 35 | 79.5% | 74.2% |
| From 1.50 to 2.00 | 46 | 26 | 56.5% | 56.4% |
Is the market well calibrated?
Each row compares the closing implied probability without margin, grouped in bands of 10 points, with the actual frequency seen in the same band. Sample: 180 1X2 outcomes across 90 matches.
| Implied probability | Outcomes | Average probability | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 to 50% | 35 | 45.3% | 48.6% |
| 50 to 60% | 35 | 54.7% | 51.4% |
Home advantage
Home teams won 51.1% of the 90 matches analyzed. Their implied probability without margin averaged 55.3%.
Odds movements
Between the opening and the close, the implied probability of an outcome moves by 3.4 percentage points on average. The favorite changes in 11.1% of the 90 matches analyzed.
When the market moves
74% of the odds movement happens in the last 24 hours before kickoff, and 19% in the last 2 hours. Sample: 90 matches.
Movement is the sum of the changes in implied probability between the opening, 24 hours before, 2 hours before and the close.
Frequently asked questions
Where do the figures for NBA come from?
From the average odds of all the bookmakers we track, without their margin, on every finished match in the competition. The Method section gives the sample thresholds.
Does OddScore recommend bets on NBA?
No. OddScore gives no stake advice. The AI reading sums up what the market says about a match. It isn't a bet to follow.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every sportsbook we track, with one price per sportsbook.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kickoff.
- Implied probability is calculated without the sportsbooks' margin.
- Results are settled at the end of the match, overtime included.
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (21+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).
Responsible gambling: figures on past matches say nothing about the next one. Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. Set yourself a budget, don't chase your losses, and use the deposit limits and self-exclusion tools available. Need to talk to someone? The National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738). Learn more about responsible gambling
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Implied probability: how to read odds
How to turn odds into a probability, margin included.
Read the guideClosing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideOdds movements: understanding the market
What happens between the first price and the last.
Read the guideSources
The figures come from our own odds records. Here are the official references on gambling and, where one exists, the competition's page.