Across 1169 soccer matches played from July 1, 2026 to November 1, 2026, the closing favorite won 56.4% of its games. On average, the market gave it 53.7%.
The market's favorites
Across 1169 soccer matches played from July 1, 2026 to November 1, 2026, the closing favorite (the lowest average odds) won 56.4% of its games. On average, the market gave it 53.7%.
| Favorite's odds | Matches | Wins | Actual rate | What the market said |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 | 287 | 224 | 78.0% | 73.4% |
| From 1.50 to 2.00 | 431 | 236 | 54.8% | 53.9% |
| Over 2.00 | 451 | 199 | 44.1% | 41.0% |
Is the market well calibrated?
Each row compares the closing implied probability without margin, grouped in bands of 10 points, with the actual frequency seen in the same band. Sample: 3507 1X2 outcomes across 1169 matches.
| Implied probability | Outcomes | Average probability | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10% | 155 | 6.6% | 2.6% |
| 10 to 20% | 510 | 15.8% | 14.1% |
| 20 to 30% | 1305 | 25.2% | 24.6% |
| 30 to 40% | 552 | 34.6% | 33.2% |
| 40 to 50% | 370 | 44.6% | 47.3% |
| 50 to 60% | 278 | 54.6% | 55.4% |
| 60 to 70% | 177 | 64.7% | 70.6% |
| 70 to 80% | 96 | 75.0% | 80.2% |
| 80 to 90% | 53 | 84.1% | 88.7% |
Draws
The draw came in 23.6% of the 1169 soccer matches analyzed. Its implied probability without margin averaged 23.6%.
| Competition | Matches | Actual draws | What the market said |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 269 | 29.7% | 23.5% |
| UEFA Nations League | 88 | 29.5% | 23.9% |
| Conference League | 35 | 28.6% | 21.4% |
| Premier League | 89 | 28.1% | 24.8% |
| La Liga | 108 | 25.0% | 24.4% |
| Ligue 1 | 80 | 23.8% | 24.6% |
| UCL Qualification | 87 | 23.0% | 23.6% |
| Bundesliga | 72 | 22.2% | 21.9% |
| Primeira Liga | 88 | 20.5% | 24.1% |
| Europa League | 54 | 16.7% | 22.0% |
| Serie A | 98 | 16.3% | 25.5% |
| Champions League | 54 | 11.1% | 20.1% |
Home advantage
Home teams won 44.9% of the 1169 matches analyzed. Their implied probability without margin averaged 44.7%.
goals: over 2.5
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 60.4% of the 1166 matches analyzed. The implied probability without margin of that outcome averaged 57.6%.
Odds movements
Between the opening and the close, the implied probability of an outcome moves by 2.7 percentage points on average. The favorite changes in 6.4% of the 1169 matches analyzed.
Conference League is the competition where odds move the most (3.8 percentage points, 35 matches).
Premier League is where they move the least (2.0 percentage points, 89 matches).
When the market moves
59% of the odds movement happens in the last 24 hours before kickoff, and 26% in the last 2 hours. Sample: 1169 matches.
Movement is the sum of the changes in implied probability between the opening, 24 hours before, 2 hours before and the close.
This week's chronicles
One chronicle a week, with the figures frozen at publication. Newest first.
Soccer, week 44: Espanyol wins at Villarreal
77 of 111 closing favorites won, or 69.4%.
Read the chronicleSoccer, week 43: Sporting falls twice
68 of 128 closing favorites won, or 53.1%.
Read the chronicleSoccer, week 42: Club Brugge upsets Inter
79 of 128 closing favorites won, or 61.7%.
Read the chronicleSoccer, week 41: 52 of 84 favorites came through
52 of 84 closing favorites won, or 61.9%.
Read the chronicleMethod
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every sportsbook we track, with one price per sportsbook.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kickoff.
- Implied probability is calculated without the sportsbooks' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (21+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Closing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideImplied probability: how to read odds
How to turn odds into a probability, margin included.
Read the guideOdds movements: understanding the market
What happens between the first price and the last.
Read the guide