Across 108 La Liga matches played from July 1, 2026 to November 1, 2026, the closing favorite won 56.5% of its games. On average, the market gave it 53.6%.
La Liga at a glance
La Liga has 20 clubs over 38 matchdays, so 380 matches between August and May. The schedule is dense, with matches spread from Friday to Monday.
Upcoming fixtures
The schedule, without odds. Each match's analysis is in the app.
- Sevilla - Alavés
- Málaga - Real Racing Club de Santander
- Espanyol - Deportivo La Coruña
- CA Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao
- Valencia - Real Madrid
- Elche CF - Real Betis
- Real Sociedad - Rayo Vallecano
- Celta Vigo - Levante
The market for La Liga
The market's favorites
Across 108 La Liga matches played from July 1, 2026 to November 1, 2026, the closing favorite (the lowest average odds) won 56.5% of its games. On average, the market gave it 53.6%.
| Favorite's odds | Matches | Wins | Actual rate | What the market said |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 | 30 | 25 | 83.3% | 74.8% |
| From 1.50 to 2.00 | 31 | 15 | 48.4% | 53.3% |
| Over 2.00 | 47 | 21 | 44.7% | 40.4% |
Is the market well calibrated?
Each row compares the closing implied probability without margin, grouped in bands of 10 points, with the actual frequency seen in the same band. Sample: 324 1X2 outcomes across 108 matches.
| Implied probability | Outcomes | Average probability | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 to 20% | 49 | 15.3% | 14.3% |
| 20 to 30% | 108 | 26.2% | 25.9% |
| 30 to 40% | 60 | 33.8% | 30.0% |
| 40 to 50% | 38 | 44.6% | 55.3% |
Draws
The draw came in 25.0% of the 108 La Liga matches analyzed. Its implied probability without margin averaged 24.4%.
Home advantage
Home teams won 45.4% of the 108 matches analyzed. Their implied probability without margin averaged 44.7%.
goals: over 2.5
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 57.4% of the 108 matches analyzed. The implied probability without margin of that outcome averaged 54.1%.
Odds movements
Between the opening and the close, the implied probability of an outcome moves by 2.9 percentage points on average. The favorite changes in 6.5% of the 108 matches analyzed.
When the market moves
49% of the odds movement happens in the last 24 hours before kickoff, and 21% in the last 2 hours. Sample: 108 matches.
Movement is the sum of the changes in implied probability between the opening, 24 hours before, 2 hours before and the close.
Frequently asked questions
How many matches are in a La Liga season?
There are 20 clubs and 38 matchdays, so 380 matches. Each club plays the other 19 clubs twice.
When is La Liga played?
From August to May. The upcoming fixtures are listed higher up on this page.
Where do the figures for La Liga come from?
From the average odds of all the bookmakers we track, without their margin, on every finished match in the competition. The Method section gives the sample thresholds.
Does OddScore recommend bets on La Liga?
No. OddScore gives no stake advice. The AI reading sums up what the market says about a match. It isn't a bet to follow.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every sportsbook we track, with one price per sportsbook.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kickoff.
- Implied probability is calculated without the sportsbooks' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (21+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).
Responsible gambling: figures on past matches say nothing about the next one. Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. Set yourself a budget, don't chase your losses, and use the deposit limits and self-exclusion tools available. Need to talk to someone? The National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738). Learn more about responsible gambling
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Soccer in numbers
Season-long statistics, all competitions combined.
Read the guideImplied probability: how to read odds
How to turn odds into a probability, margin included.
Read the guideClosing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideSources
The figures come from our own odds records. Here are the official references on gambling and, where one exists, the competition's page.