Across 84 matches played from 5 to 11 October 2026, 52 closing favourites won (61.9%). The clearest favourite to fall: Bayern, held 2-2 at Augsburg at average odds of 1.16. Average odds across all bookmakers, matches already played.
The figure of the week
52 of 84 closing favourites won between 5 and 11 October 2026. That's 61.9% of the matches settled with odds, across eight competitions. The closing favourite is the outcome with the lowest average odds, taken across all bookmakers.
The UEFA Nations League (18 matches) and MLS (15) weigh the most in the sample. The Premier League, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 have 9 matches each.
The market saw it coming
Manchester City won 3-0 at Liverpool. Their average odds had shortened by 18.3% between the first price we kept and the close, from 2.51 to 2.05. That's the sharpest shortening among the week's winning outcomes (odds of 8 or below).
Seattle Sounders FC won 3-0 at New England Revolution (from 3.69 to 3.14, down 15.0%). Bulgaria won 2-0 in Luxembourg (from 3.60 to 3.08, down 14.2%).
Against the market
Three winners the market was walking away from. Lorient beat Paris FC 1-0 after their odds drifted from 2.95 to 3.66 (+24.2%). Lens won 2-1 against Lyon (from 2.15 to 2.52, +17.2%). Belarus beat Finland 1-0 (from 3.47 to 4.02, +16.0%).
What I take from it: lengthening odds tell you what the market thought before the match. They say nothing about what will happen. Across 84 matches, a few are bound to go against the movement.
The favourite who fell, the surprise
Bayern were the clearest favourites to fall this week, at closing average odds of 1.16. Augsburg held on for a 2-2 draw. That draw was the winning outcome at the week's highest closing odds: 8.77, against 7.49 at the first price we kept.
The next clearest fallen favourites: Dortmund against Bremen (2-2, favourites at 1.35), Montenegro against Armenia (0-0, 1.40), Hoffenheim beaten 3-2 by Hamburg (1.41) and Cagliari against Juventus (1-1, Juventus at 1.55).
Background reading
Closing odds are the last price before kick-off: what Closing Line Value measures. And to read a shortening or a drift, odds movements explains where they come from.
The match of the week, told by its curve
Lorient host Paris FC on Saturday 10 October at 7.45pm UK time (BST). The average odds on a Lorient win start at 2.94 on 1 October and stay almost flat for four days. They rise to 3.08 on 5 October and reach 3.30 at midnight UTC on 10 October. Six hours later they jump to 3.52, then stand at 3.59 at 6pm UTC. Lorient won 1-0.
Figures frozen at publication. Method: average odds across all bookmakers, opening at the first price kept, close at the last price before kick-off, settlement in regulation time. All the season's statistics: the market in numbers.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every bookmaker we track, with one price per bookmaker.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kick-off.
- Implied probability is calculated without the bookmakers' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (18+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Gambling Helpline is on 0808 8020 133 across Great Britain, 24 hours a day. More help at BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org).
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Closing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideOdds movements: understanding the market
What happens between the first price and the last.
Read the guideSources and method
Figures calculated by OddScore on matches already played, from the average odds of every bookmaker we track. The references below cover gambling regulation and player support in Great Britain.