Across 128 matches played from 12 to 18 October 2026, 79 closing favourites won (61.7%). The biggest surprise: Club Brugge, 4-3 winners at Inter at closing average odds of 11.13. Average odds across all bookmakers, matches already played.
The figure of the week
79 of 128 closing favourites won between 12 and 18 October 2026. That's 61.7% of the matches settled with odds, across nine competitions. The closing favourite is the outcome with the lowest average odds, taken across all bookmakers.
MLS (30 matches) weighs the most in the sample. Next come the Champions League, the Europa League and the Conference League, with 18 matches each. The Premier League, the Bundesliga, La Liga and Ligue 1 have 9, Serie A 8.
The market saw it coming
Olympiakos won 1-0 at Marseille. Their average odds had shortened by 21.3% between the first price we kept and the close, from 3.16 to 2.49. That's the sharpest shortening among the week's winning outcomes (odds of 8 or below).
Atlético Madrid come close. They beat Manchester United 2-0, with odds going from 2.26 to 1.78 (down 21.0%). Leipzig beat PSV Eindhoven 1-0 (from 1.93 to 1.57, down 18.5%). Bodø/Glimt beat Dortmund 1-0 (from 3.14 to 2.63, down 16.1%).
Against the market
Toronto won 2-0 at the New York Red Bulls. Their average odds had drifted from 2.82 to 4.10, up 45.5%. D.C. United beat the same Red Bulls 2-1 while their odds rose from 1.73 to 2.37 (+36.6%).
I notice the Red Bulls show up twice in this section. They lost both matches, and each time the odds on their opponents had lengthened before kick-off.
Outside MLS, Roma beat Genoa 2-0 despite odds going from 1.28 to 1.62 (+26.0%). Lyon beat Crystal Palace 3-2 (from 2.12 to 2.58, +21.4%).
The favourite who fell, the surprise
Bayern were the clearest favourites to fall this week, at closing average odds of 1.14. Viking held on for 3-3. Inter, favourites at 1.22, lost 4-3 at home to Club Brugge.
That Brugge win is the winning outcome at the week's highest closing odds: 11.13, against 8.93 at the first price we kept. Viking's draw against Bayern comes just behind, at 9.54. Lazio won 3-0 at Juventus, at 5.26.
The other fallen favourites are well behind: Seattle against Montréal (1-1, favourites at 1.36), Sparta Prague against Lillestrøm (1-1, 1.40) and Villarreal against Elche (0-0, 1.41).
Background reading
A fast, widespread shortening has a name: the Steam Move. And every price carries the bookmaker's margin, which the probabilities without margin strip out.
The match of the week, told by its curve
The New York Red Bulls host Toronto overnight on 17 to 18 October, kicking off at 12.40am UK time (BST) on the 18th, which is 23:40 UTC on the 17th. The average odds on a Toronto win hover around 2.80 from 10 to 14 October.
On 15 October they go to 2.96, then climb to 3.12 the next day. Everything speeds up on the 17th. They stand at 3.24 at midnight UTC, 3.91 at midday and 4.02 in the evening, before closing at 4.10. Toronto won 2-0.
Figures frozen at publication. Method: average odds across all bookmakers, opening at the first price kept, close at the last price before kick-off, settlement in regulation time. All the season's statistics: the market in numbers.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every bookmaker we track, with one price per bookmaker.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kick-off.
- Implied probability is calculated without the bookmakers' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (18+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Gambling Helpline is on 0808 8020 133 across Great Britain, 24 hours a day. More help at BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org).
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
What is a Steam Move?
When odds shorten fast and everywhere at once.
Read the guideBookmaker margin: definition and calculation
How the margin is built into every price.
Read the guideSources and method
Figures calculated by OddScore on matches already played, from the average odds of every bookmaker we track. The references below cover gambling regulation and player support in Great Britain.