Across 111 matches played from 26 October to 1 November 2026, 77 closing favourites won. The biggest surprise: Espanyol, 1-0 winners at Villarreal at closing average odds of 7.31. Average odds across all bookmakers, matches already played.
The figure of the week
77 of 111 closing favourites won between 26 October and 1 November 2026. That's the count across the matches settled with odds, spread over nine competitions. The closing favourite is the outcome with the lowest average odds, taken across all bookmakers.
MLS leads with 27 matches, then the Copa del Rey (20) and Serie A (18). La Liga has 10, Ligue 1, the Bundesliga and the Premier League 9 each, the Primeira Liga 8 and the EFL Cup 1.
The market saw it coming
Werder Bremen won 2-0 against Hoffenheim. Their average odds shortened from 2.89 to 2.27 between the first price we kept and the close, down 21.4%. That's the sharpest shortening among the week's winning outcomes.
FC Cincinnati follow, 1-0 winners against Philadelphia Union (from 2.77 to 2.23, down 19.5%). LA Galaxy beat Austin FC 4-1 (from 1.61 to 1.33, down 17.2%). Portland won 3-2 at St. Louis City (from 4.09 to 3.46, down 15.5%), and Lazio won 6-2 at Sassuolo (from 2.30 to 1.97, down 14.4%).
Against the market
Espanyol won 1-0 at Villarreal. Their average odds had drifted from 5.20 to 7.31, up 40.5%. No other winning outcome lengthened that much this week.
In MLS, Houston Dynamo won 1-0 at Seattle Sounders, with odds going from 3.50 to 4.66 (+33.1%). San Diego FC won 1-0 at St. Louis City (from 3.64 to 4.53, +24.6%).
AC Milan beat Inter Milan 3-1 in Serie A, from 2.99 to 3.67 (+22.8%). Chicago Fire's 2-2 draw with Orlando City went from 4.21 to 5.17 (+22.7%).
The favourite who fell, the surprise
Bayern Munich were held 2-2 by Borussia Dortmund at closing average odds of 1.31. That's the shortest price among the week's fallen favourites, and it barely moved from the opening 1.32.
Villarreal (1.36) lost 0-1 to Espanyol. New York City FC (1.41) drew 1-1 with CF Montreal, and Chicago Fire (1.45) drew 2-2 with Orlando City. Inter Miami (1.50) drew 2-2 with FC Cincinnati, after odds that had drifted up from 1.45.
Espanyol's win is the winning outcome at the week's highest closing odds: 7.31. Bayern's draw with Dortmund comes next, at 5.93, then Bologna's 4-2 win at AC Milan, at 5.30. Chicago Fire's draw and Genoa's 2-0 win against Juventus both closed at 5.17.
I keep coming back to Bayern's draw. The market barely moved on it, while Espanyol's price was shifting almost every day. Two upsets, two very different stories.
Background reading
Why do odds rise or fall before kick-off? The guide on odds movements covers it. To see how closing prices are judged, there's also closing line value.
The match of the week, told by its curve
Villarreal host Espanyol on 30 October, kicking off at 20:00 UTC. From 20 to 24 October, the average odds on an Espanyol win sit almost flat, between 5.21 and 5.28.
The move starts on 25 October: 5.26 at midnight UTC, 5.48 at 06:00 UTC. They reach 5.62 at midnight UTC on the 26th, then 5.84 at midday and 6.12 in the evening. On the 27th they stand at 6.28 at 06:00 UTC and 6.50 at 18:00 UTC.
They hold around 6.50 to 6.56 through the 28th and into the 29th. The climb picks up again on the 29th (6.64 at midday UTC, 6.73 in the evening), then 6.83 at midnight UTC on the 30th, 6.95 at midday and 7.15 at 18:00 UTC, before closing at 7.31. Espanyol won 1-0.
Figures frozen at publication. Method: average odds across all bookmakers, opening at the first price kept, close at the last price before kick-off, settlement in regulation time. All the season's statistics: the market in numbers.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every bookmaker we track, with one price per bookmaker.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kick-off.
- Implied probability is calculated without the bookmakers' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (18+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Gambling Helpline is on 0808 8020 133 across Great Britain, 24 hours a day. More help at BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org).
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Odds movements: understanding the market
What happens between the first price and the last.
Read the guideClosing line value: what the last price says
Why the closing price is the market's final word.
Read the guideSources and method
Figures calculated by OddScore on matches already played, from the average odds of every bookmaker we track. The references below cover gambling regulation and player support in Great Britain.