Across 128 matches played from 19 to 25 October 2026, 68 closing favourites won (53.1%). The biggest surprise: Académico de Viseu, 2-1 winners at Sporting Lisbon at closing average odds of 9.99. Average odds across all bookmakers, matches already played.
The figure of the week
68 of 128 closing favourites won between 19 and 25 October 2026. That's 53.1% of the matches settled with odds, across ten competitions. The week before, it was 79 out of 128. The closing favourite is the outcome with the lowest average odds, taken across all bookmakers.
The European cups weigh the most: 18 matches in the Champions League and the Europa League, 17 in the Conference League. Then come MLS (15), Serie A (12), the Premier League and La Liga (11 each), the Primeira Liga and the Bundesliga (9), and Ligue 1 (8).
The market saw it coming
Bournemouth won 3-0 at Manchester United. Their average odds had shortened by 23.9% between the first price we kept and the close, from 3.82 to 2.91. That's the sharpest shortening among the week's winning outcomes (odds of 8 or below).
Real Salt Lake follow, 3-0 winners against St. Louis City (from 2.46 to 1.93, down 21.5%). In the Conference League, Lugano won 5-2 at Getafe (from 4.37 to 3.46, down 20.9%). Sint-Truiden won 1-0 at Midtjylland (from 4.35 to 3.45, down 20.8%).
Against the market
PSV Eindhoven won 1-0 at Porto in the Champions League. Their average odds had drifted from 4.21 to 6.05, up 43.7%. No other winning outcome lengthened that much this week.
Jablonec's 0-0 draw with Brighton follows closely, from 4.87 to 6.97 (+43.3%). NEC Nijmegen won 4-2 at Dinamo Zagreb, with odds rising from 4.00 to 5.58 (+39.3%).
In the Bundesliga, Mönchengladbach won 3-2 at Stuttgart (from 5.96 to 7.51, +26.0%). In the Champions League, Slavia Prague's 2-2 draw at Fenerbahçe went from 4.03 to 4.97 (+23.5%).
The favourite who fell, the surprise
Sporting Lisbon fell twice as favourites this week. In the Primeira Liga, they lost 2-1 to Académico de Viseu, at closing average odds of 1.23. In the Champions League, LASK won 3-2 at Sporting, who were priced at 1.30.
The clearest favourites to fall remain Brighton, at 1.18. They failed to score at Jablonec (0-0) in the Conference League. Stuttgart (1.32) lost 3-2 to Mönchengladbach. Nordsjælland (1.38) conceded a 2-2 draw against CSKA Sofia.
Viseu's win is the winning outcome at the week's highest closing odds: 9.99. LASK's comes next, at 8.33, then Mönchengladbach's, at 7.51.
One figure keeps pulling me back to Viseu. Their odds had shortened by 13.2% before the match, from 11.51 to 9.99. They don't appear higher up, because the section on shortening odds only keeps odds of 8 or below.
Background reading
Why do odds rise or fall before kick-off? That's the subject of the guide on odds movements. Each price also has the bookmaker's margin built in, and the guide explains how it's worked out.
The match of the week, told by its curve
Porto host PSV Eindhoven on 20 October, kicking off at 8pm UK time (BST), which is 19:00 UTC. The average odds on a PSV win hover around 4.20 from 15 to 17 October.
They jump to 4.62 on the evening of the 17th, then stay between 4.65 and 4.77 until midnight UTC on the 19th. The climb then resumes without a pause. They stand at 5.07 at midday UTC on the 19th, 5.36 at midnight UTC on the 20th, 5.71 at midday and 5.92 in the evening, before closing at 6.05. PSV won 1-0.
Figures frozen at publication. Method: average odds across all bookmakers, opening at the first price kept, close at the last price before kick-off, settlement in regulation time. All the season's statistics: the market in numbers.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every bookmaker we track, with one price per bookmaker.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kick-off.
- Implied probability is calculated without the bookmakers' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (18+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Gambling Helpline is on 0808 8020 133 across Great Britain, 24 hours a day. More help at BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org).
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Odds movements: understanding the market
What happens between the first price and the last.
Read the guideBookmaker margin: definition and calculation
How the margin is built into every price.
Read the guideSources and method
Figures calculated by OddScore on matches already played, from the average odds of every bookmaker we track. The references below cover gambling regulation and player support in Great Britain.