Across 88 Primeira Liga matches played from July 1, 2026 to November 1, 2026, the closing favorite won 55.7% of its games. On average, the market gave it 55.9%.
Primeira Liga at a glance
The Portuguese Primeira Liga has 18 clubs and 34 matchdays, so 306 matches between August and May. Odds are tracked the same way as in the other leagues: same method, same sample threshold.
Upcoming fixtures
The schedule, without odds. Each match's analysis is in the app.
- Famalicão - Arouca
- Nacional - Académico de Viseu
- Alverca - Casa Pia
- Sporting Lisbon - Moreirense FC
- Santa Clara - Gil Vicente
- Estoril - CS Maritimo
- Vitória SC - FC Porto
- Rio Ave FC - Braga
The market for Primeira Liga
The market's favorites
Across 88 Primeira Liga matches played from July 1, 2026 to November 1, 2026, the closing favorite (the lowest average odds) won 55.7% of its games. On average, the market gave it 55.9%.
| Favorite's odds | Matches | Wins | Actual rate | What the market said |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.00 | 32 | 15 | 46.9% | 40.6% |
Is the market well calibrated?
Each row compares the closing implied probability without margin, grouped in bands of 10 points, with the actual frequency seen in the same band. Sample: 264 1X2 outcomes across 88 matches.
| Implied probability | Outcomes | Average probability | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 to 20% | 45 | 15.1% | 17.8% |
| 20 to 30% | 85 | 26.3% | 25.9% |
| 30 to 40% | 42 | 34.1% | 31.0% |
Draws
The draw came in 20.5% of the 88 Primeira Liga matches analyzed. Its implied probability without margin averaged 24.1%.
Home advantage
Home teams won 39.8% of the 88 matches analyzed. Their implied probability without margin averaged 42.7%.
goals: over 2.5
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 55.7% of the 88 matches analyzed. The implied probability without margin of that outcome averaged 50.4%.
Odds movements
Between the opening and the close, the implied probability of an outcome moves by 2.4 percentage points on average. The favorite changes in 6.8% of the 88 matches analyzed.
When the market moves
62% of the odds movement happens in the last 24 hours before kickoff, and 23% in the last 2 hours. Sample: 88 matches.
Movement is the sum of the changes in implied probability between the opening, 24 hours before, 2 hours before and the close.
Frequently asked questions
How many clubs play in the Primeira Liga?
There are 18. Each club plays 34 matches, against the other 17 clubs at home and away.
When is the Primeira Liga played?
From August to May. The upcoming fixtures are listed higher up on this page.
Where do the figures for Primeira Liga come from?
From the average odds of all the bookmakers we track, without their margin, on every finished match in the competition. The Method section gives the sample thresholds.
Does OddScore recommend bets on Primeira Liga?
No. OddScore gives no stake advice. The AI reading sums up what the market says about a match. It isn't a bet to follow.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every sportsbook we track, with one price per sportsbook.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kickoff.
- Implied probability is calculated without the sportsbooks' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (21+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).
Responsible gambling: figures on past matches say nothing about the next one. Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. Set yourself a budget, don't chase your losses, and use the deposit limits and self-exclusion tools available. Need to talk to someone? The National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738). Learn more about responsible gambling
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Soccer in numbers
Season-long statistics, all competitions combined.
Read the guideImplied probability: how to read odds
How to turn odds into a probability, margin included.
Read the guideClosing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideSources
The figures come from our own odds records. Here are the official references on gambling and, where one exists, the competition's page.