Across 84 matches played from October 5 to 11, 2026, 52 closing favorites won (61.9%). The clearest favorite to fall: Bayern, held to a 2-2 draw at Augsburg at average odds of 1.16. Average odds across all sportsbooks, matches already played.
The number of the week
52 of 84 closing favorites won between October 5 and 11, 2026. That's 61.9% of the matches settled with odds, across eight competitions. The closing favorite is the outcome with the lowest average odds across all sportsbooks.
The UEFA Nations League (18 matches) and MLS (15) weigh the most in the sample. The Premier League, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 have 9 matches each.
The market saw it coming
Manchester City won 3-0 at Liverpool. Its average odds had shortened by 18.3% between the first price we kept and the close, from 2.51 to 2.05. That's the biggest shortening among the week's winning outcomes (odds of 8 or less).
Seattle Sounders FC won 3-0 at the New England Revolution (from 3.69 to 3.14, down 15.0%). Bulgaria won 2-0 at Luxembourg (from 3.60 to 3.08, down 14.2%).
Against the grain
Three winners the market was walking away from. Lorient beat Paris FC 1-0 after its odds went from 2.95 to 3.66 (up 24.2%). Lens won 2-1 against Lyon (from 2.15 to 2.52, up 17.2%). Belarus beat Finland 1-0 (from 3.47 to 4.02, up 16.0%).
Here's what I take from it: a price that drifts tells you what the market thought before kickoff, not what will happen. Over 84 matches, a few are bound to go against the move.
The favorite that fell, the surprise
Bayern is the clearest favorite to fall this week, at closing average odds of 1.16 (-625 in American odds). Augsburg held on for a 2-2 draw. The draw was the winning outcome with the highest closing odds of the week: 8.77, against 7.49 at the first price we kept.
The next clearest favorites to fall: Dortmund against Bremen (2-2, favorite at 1.35), Montenegro against Armenia (0-0, 1.40), Hoffenheim beaten 3-2 by Hamburg (1.41) and Cagliari against Juventus (1-1, Juventus at 1.55).
Background reading
The closing line is the last price before kickoff: what closing line value measures. To read a shortening or a drift, the guide on odds movements explains where they come from.
The match of the week, told by its curve
Lorient hosts Paris FC on Saturday, October 10, at 2:45 p.m. ET. The average odds on a Lorient win start at 2.94 on October 1 and stay almost flat for four days. They rise to 3.08 on October 5 and reach 3.30 at midnight UTC on October 10. They jump to 3.52 six hours later, and stand at 3.59 at 6 p.m. UTC. Lorient won 1-0.
Figures frozen at publication. Method: average odds across all sportsbooks, opening at the first price we kept, close at the last price before kickoff, settlement in regulation time. Odds are decimal, with American odds in parentheses when the conversion is exact. Every season statistic: the market in numbers.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every sportsbook we track, with one price per sportsbook.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kickoff.
- Implied probability is calculated without the sportsbooks' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (21+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Closing line value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideOdds movements: understanding the market
What happens between the first price and the last.
Read the guideSources and method
Figures calculated by OddScore on matches already played, from the average odds of all the sportsbooks we track. The references below cover gambling regulation and player help in the United States.