Across 128 matches played from October 12 to 18, 2026, 79 closing favorites won (61.7%). The biggest surprise: Club Brugge, 4-3 winners at Inter at closing average odds of 11.13 (+1013 in American odds). Average odds across all sportsbooks, matches already played.
The number of the week
79 of 128 closing favorites won between October 12 and 18, 2026. That's 61.7% of the matches settled with odds, across nine competitions. The closing favorite is the outcome with the lowest average odds across all sportsbooks.
MLS (30 matches) weighs the most in the sample. The Champions League, the Europa League and the Conference League follow with 18 matches each. The Premier League, the Bundesliga, La Liga and Ligue 1 have 9 apiece, Serie A has 8.
The market saw it coming
Olympiakos won 1-0 at Marseille. Its average odds had shortened by 21.3% between the first price we kept and the close, from 3.16 to 2.49 (+149 in American odds). That's the biggest shortening among the week's winning outcomes (odds of 8 or less).
Atlético Madrid is close behind. It beat Manchester United 2-0, with odds going from 2.26 to 1.78 (down 21.0%). Leipzig beat PSV Eindhoven 1-0 (from 1.93 to 1.57, down 18.5%). Bodø/Glimt beat Dortmund 1-0 (from 3.14 to 2.63, down 16.1%).
Against the grain
Toronto won 2-0 at the New York Red Bulls. Its average odds had still drifted from 2.82 to 4.10, which is 45.5% longer. D.C. United beat the same Red Bulls 2-1 while its odds rose from 1.73 to 2.37 (up 36.6%).
I notice the Red Bulls show up twice in this section. They lost both matches, and each time the opponent's odds had lengthened before kickoff.
Outside MLS, Roma beat Genoa 2-0 even though its odds went from 1.28 to 1.62 (up 26.0%). Lyon beat Crystal Palace 3-2 (from 2.12 to 2.58, up 21.4%).
The favorite that fell, the surprise
Bayern is the clearest favorite to fall this week, at closing average odds of 1.14. Viking held on for a 3-3 draw. Inter, the favorite at 1.22, lost 4-3 at home to Club Brugge.
That Club Brugge win is the winning outcome with the highest closing odds of the week: 11.13 (+1013), against 8.93 at the first price we kept. Viking's draw against Bayern comes right behind, at 9.54 (+854). Lazio won 3-0 in Turin against Juventus, at 5.26 (+426).
The other fallen favorites sit well below: Seattle against Montreal (1-1, favorite at 1.36), Sparta Prague against Lillestrøm (1-1, 1.40, or -250) and Villarreal against Elche (0-0, 1.41).
Background reading
A fast, widespread shortening has a name: the steam move. And the odds we average here still include each sportsbook's margin.
The match of the week, told by its curve
The New York Red Bulls host Toronto on Saturday, October 17, at 7:40 p.m. ET. The average odds on a Toronto win hover around 2.80 from October 10 to 14.
On October 15 they move to 2.96, then climb to 3.12 the next day. Everything speeds up on the 17th. They stand at 3.24 at midnight UTC, 3.91 at noon and 4.02 at 6 p.m. UTC, before closing at 4.10 (+310). Toronto won 2-0.
Figures frozen at publication. Method: average odds across all sportsbooks, opening at the first price we kept, close at the last price before kickoff, settlement in regulation time. Odds are decimal, with American odds in parentheses when the conversion is exact. Every season statistic: the market in numbers.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every sportsbook we track, with one price per sportsbook.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kickoff.
- Implied probability is calculated without the sportsbooks' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (21+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
What is a steam move?
When a price shortens fast and everywhere at once.
Read the guideSportsbook margin: how it's calculated
How a sportsbook builds its margin into the odds.
Read the guideSources and method
Figures calculated by OddScore on matches already played, from the average odds of all the sportsbooks we track. The references below cover gambling regulation and player help in the United States.