Across 111 matches played from October 26 to November 1, 2026, 77 closing favorites won (69.4%). The biggest surprise: Espanyol, 1-0 winners at Villarreal at closing average odds of 7.31. Average odds across all sportsbooks, matches already played.
The number of the week
77 of 111 closing favorites won between October 26 and November 1, 2026. That's 69.4% of the matches settled with odds, across nine competitions. The closing favorite is the outcome with the lowest average odds across all sportsbooks at the last price before kickoff.
MLS led the count with 27 matches, ahead of the Copa del Rey (20) and Serie A (18). La Liga had 10, Ligue 1, the Bundesliga and the Premier League 9 each, the Primeira Liga 8 and the EFL Cup 1.
For context, from July 1 to November 1, 2026, 659 of 1,169 closing favorites won, or 56.4%. So this week ran well above the season so far.
The market saw it coming
Werder Bremen beat Hoffenheim 2-0 in the Bundesliga. Its average odds had shortened by 21.4% between the first price we kept and the close, from 2.89 (+189 in American odds) to 2.27 (+127). That's the biggest shortening among the week's winning outcomes.
FC Cincinnati is next. It won 1-0 against Philadelphia Union, from 2.77 to 2.23 (+123), down 19.5%. LA Galaxy beat Austin FC 4-1 after shortening from 1.61 to 1.33, down 17.2%.
In MLS again, Portland won 3-2 at St. Louis City, from 4.09 to 3.46 (down 15.5%). And Lazio won 6-2 at Sassuolo, from 2.30 to 1.97 (down 14.4%).
Against the grain
Espanyol won 1-0 at Villarreal in La Liga. Its average odds had still drifted from 5.20 (+420) to 7.31 (+631), which is 40.5% longer. No other winning outcome lengthened that much this week.
In MLS, Houston won 1-0 at Seattle after its odds rose from 3.50 to 4.66 (+366), up 33.1%. San Diego won 1-0 at St. Louis City, from 3.64 to 4.53 (up 24.6%).
The Milan derby also went against the drift. AC Milan beat Inter 3-1 after going from 2.99 to 3.67 (up 22.8%). Chicago Fire's 2-2 draw with Orlando City, from 4.21 to 5.17, rounds out the list (up 22.7%).
The favorite that fell, the surprise
Villarreal was the week's clearest surprise. The home side closed at 1.36 and lost 1-0 to Espanyol, whose win is also the winning outcome with the highest closing odds of the week: 7.31.
Bayern Munich, at 1.31, was held 2-2 by Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. The draw closed at 5.93 (+493), the second-highest winning price of the week. AC Milan's loss to Bologna, 4-2 for the visitors, came next at 5.30 (+430).
In MLS, three favorites failed to win: New York City FC (1.41) drew 1-1 with CF Montreal, Chicago Fire (1.45) drew 2-2 with Orlando City, and Inter Miami (1.50) drew 2-2 with FC Cincinnati. Genoa's 2-0 win against Juventus closed at 5.17.
What stays with me about Villarreal is the direction of travel. The favorite's price barely fell, from 1.49 to 1.36, while the visitors' price kept climbing right up to the close. The market was leaning one way and the match went the other.
Background reading
Why does a price rise or fall before kickoff? That's the subject of the guide on odds movements. To turn a price like 7.31 into a probability, see implied probability.
The match of the week, told by its curve
Villarreal hosts Espanyol on Friday, October 30, with kickoff listed at 21:00 (UTC+1). The curve below is in UTC. The average odds on an Espanyol win sit around 5.26 from 18:00 UTC on October 20, and hardly move for almost five days, between 5.21 and 5.28.
The first jump comes at 06:00 UTC on the 25th, to 5.48. They reach 5.62 at midnight UTC on the 26th, then 5.84 at noon and 6.12 at 18:00 UTC. By 18:00 UTC on the 27th they're at 6.50, and they hold between 6.50 and 6.56 until 06:00 UTC on the 29th.
The climb resumes after that: 6.95 at noon UTC on the 30th, 7.15 at 18:00 UTC, then a close at 7.31. Espanyol won 1-0.
Figures frozen at publication. Method: average odds across all sportsbooks, opening at the first price we kept, close at the last price before kickoff, settlement in regulation time. Odds are decimal, with American odds in parentheses when the conversion is exact. Every season statistic: the market in numbers.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every sportsbook we track, with one price per sportsbook.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kickoff.
- Implied probability is calculated without the sportsbooks' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (21+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Odds movements: understanding what the market does
Why a price rises or falls before kickoff.
Read the guideImplied probability: turning odds into a percentage
What a price like 7.31 says about the chance the market sees.
Read the guideSources and method
Figures calculated by OddScore on matches already played, from the average odds of all the sportsbooks we track. The references below cover gambling regulation and player help in the United States.