Across 128 matches played from October 19 to 25, 2026, 68 closing favorites won (53.1%). The biggest surprise: Académico de Viseu, 2-1 winners at Sporting Lisbon at closing average odds of 9.99. Average odds across all sportsbooks, matches already played.
The number of the week
68 of 128 closing favorites won between October 19 and 25, 2026. That's 53.1% of the matches settled with odds, across ten competitions. The week before, it was 79 out of 128. The closing favorite is the outcome with the lowest average odds across all sportsbooks.
European competitions weigh the most: 18 matches each in the Champions League and the Europa League, 17 in the Conference League. MLS follows (15), then Serie A (12), the Premier League and La Liga (11 each), the Primeira Liga and the Bundesliga (9), and Ligue 1 (8).
The market saw it coming
Bournemouth won 3-0 at Manchester United. Its average odds had shortened by 23.9% between the first price we kept and the close, from 3.82 to 2.91 (+191 in American odds). That's the biggest shortening among the week's winning outcomes (odds of 8 or less).
Real Salt Lake is next, 3-0 winners over St. Louis City (from 2.46 to 1.93, down 21.5%). In the Conference League, Lugano won 5-2 at Getafe (from 4.37 to 3.46, down 20.9%). Sint-Truiden won 1-0 at Midtjylland (from 4.35 to 3.45, down 20.8%).
Against the grain
PSV Eindhoven won 1-0 at Porto in the Champions League. Its average odds had still drifted from 4.21 to 6.05 (+505), which is 43.7% longer. No other winning outcome lengthened that much this week.
Jablonec's 0-0 draw against Brighton is close behind, from 4.87 to 6.97 (up 43.3%). NEC Nijmegen won 4-2 at Dinamo Zagreb after its odds rose from 4.00 to 5.58 (up 39.3%).
In the Bundesliga, Mönchengladbach won 3-2 at Stuttgart (from 5.96 to 7.51, up 26.0%). In the Champions League, Slavia Prague's 2-2 draw at Fenerbahçe went from 4.03 to 4.97 (up 23.5%).
The favorite that fell, the surprise
Sporting Lisbon fell twice as the favorite this week. In the Primeira Liga, it lost 2-1 at home to Académico de Viseu, at closing average odds of 1.23. In the Champions League, LASK won 3-2 at Sporting, which was priced at 1.30.
The clearest favorite to fall remains Brighton, at 1.18. It failed to score at Jablonec (0-0) in the Conference League. Stuttgart (1.32) lost 3-2 to Mönchengladbach. Nordsjælland (1.38) conceded a 2-2 draw to CSKA Sofia.
Viseu's win is the winning outcome with the highest closing odds of the week: 9.99 (+899). LASK's comes next, at 8.33 (+733), then Mönchengladbach's, at 7.51 (+651).
One number keeps me coming back to Viseu. Its odds had shortened by 13.2% before the match, from 11.51 to 9.99. It doesn't appear in the shortening section above, because that section only keeps odds of 8 or less.
Background reading
Why does a price rise or fall before kickoff? That's the subject of the guide on odds movements. And the odds we average here still include each sportsbook's margin.
The match of the week, told by its curve
Porto hosts PSV Eindhoven on Tuesday, October 20, at 3 p.m. ET. The average odds on a PSV win hover around 4.20 from October 15 to 17.
They jump to 4.62 at 6 p.m. UTC on the 17th, then stay between 4.65 and 4.77 until midnight UTC on the 19th. After that, the climb resumes without a pause. They stand at 5.07 at noon UTC on the 19th, 5.36 at midnight UTC on the 20th, 5.71 at noon and 5.92 at 6 p.m. UTC, before closing at 6.05. PSV won 1-0.
Figures frozen at publication. Method: average odds across all sportsbooks, opening at the first price we kept, close at the last price before kickoff, settlement in regulation time. Odds are decimal, with American odds in parentheses when the conversion is exact. Every season statistic: the market in numbers.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every sportsbook we track, with one price per sportsbook.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kickoff.
- Implied probability is calculated without the sportsbooks' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (21+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? The National Council on Problem Gambling helpline is 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738).
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Odds movements: understanding what the market does
Why a price rises or falls before kickoff.
Read the guideSportsbook margin: how it's calculated
How a sportsbook builds its margin into the odds.
Read the guideSources and method
Figures calculated by OddScore on matches already played, from the average odds of all the sportsbooks we track. The references below cover gambling regulation and player help in the United States.