Across 30 MLS matches played from 1 July 2026 to 18 October 2026, the closing favourite won 43.3% of its games. On average, the market gave it 50.0%.
MLS at a glance
MLS runs over the calendar year, not from August to May. Its 30 clubs are split into two conferences, East and West, and each plays 34 regular-season matches. A playoff stage then decides the champion at the MLS Cup. The statistics on this page start on 1 July, so they cover the second half of the season.
Upcoming matches
The fixtures, without odds. The analysis for each match is in the app.
- FC Cincinnati - D.C. United
- CF Montreal - Nashville SC
- Columbus Crew SC - Toronto FC
- New York Red Bulls - Inter Miami CF
- Philadelphia Union - New England Revolution
- Orlando City SC - New York City FC
- Atlanta United FC - Chicago Fire
- D.C. United - FC Cincinnati
The market on MLS
The market's favourites
Across 30 MLS matches played from 1 July 2026 to 18 October 2026, the closing favourite (the lowest average odds) won 43.3% of its games. On average, the market gave it 50.0%.
Is the market well calibrated?
Each row compares the closing implied probability without margin, grouped in bands of 10 points, with the actual frequency seen in the same band. Sample: 90 1X2 outcomes across 30 matches.
| Implied probability | Outcomes | Average probability | Actual frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 to 30% | 36 | 24.5% | 30.6% |
Draws
The draw came in 40.0% of the 30 MLS matches analysed. Its implied probability without margin averaged 23.0%.
Home advantage
Home teams won 33.3% of the 30 matches analysed. Their implied probability without margin averaged 46.5%.
goals: over 2.5
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 60.0% of the 30 matches analysed. The implied probability without margin of that outcome averaged 65.5%.
Odds movements
Between the opening and the close, the implied probability of an outcome moves by 2.9 percentage points on average. The favourite changes in 6.7% of the 30 matches analysed.
When the market moves
61% of the odds movement happens in the last 24 hours before kick-off, and 28% in the last 2 hours. Sample: 30 matches.
Movement is the sum of the changes in implied probability between the opening, 24 hours before, 2 hours before and the close.
Different prices from one bookmaker to the next
At the close, the best odds on an outcome beat the worst by 18.8% on average (30 matches). No bookmaker is named.
Frequently asked questions
When is MLS played?
Over the calendar year. The regular season ends in the autumn, before the playoffs. The upcoming matches are listed higher up on this page.
Why do MLS statistics start in July?
All the competitions we track use the same period, from 1 July to the last Sunday that has finished, so they stay comparable. In MLS, that covers the second half of the season.
Where do the figures on MLS come from?
The average odds from every bookmaker we track, with their margin removed, for each finished match in the competition. The Method section gives the sample thresholds.
Does OddScore tell you which team to back in MLS?
No. OddScore gives no stake advice. The AI reading sums up what the market says about a match. It is not a bet to follow.
Method
These figures describe the market, not OddScore. They don't measure any reading or score from the product.
- A price is the average of the odds from every bookmaker we track, with one price per bookmaker.
- The opening is the first price we kept. The close is the last price before kick-off.
- Implied probability is calculated without the bookmakers' margin.
- Results are settled in regulation time (90 minutes).
- Betting exchanges are left out of the best and worst odds.
- An overall statistic appears from 100 matches, a band or a competition from 30.
More detail on the methodology page and the corrections log.
Descriptive figures on matches already played. No tip, no stake advice, no promise of winnings. Adults only (18+). Gambling carries risks: debt, isolation, addiction. Need to talk to someone? Visit BeGambleAware (begambleaware.org).
Responsible gambling: figures on past matches say nothing about the next one. Sports betting carries a risk of financial loss. Set yourself a budget, don't chase your losses, and use the deposit limits and self-exclusion tools available. Learn more about responsible gambling
Dig into the market
Odds movements are only part of the story. Here are the next topics to read.
Implied probability: how to read odds
How to turn odds into a probability, margin included.
Read the guideClosing Line Value: the closing odds
Why the last price before the match is the benchmark.
Read the guideOdds movements: understanding the market
What happens between the first price and the last.
Read the guideSources
The figures come from our own odds records. Here are the official references on gambling and, where one exists, the competition's page.